" crash time table of the real estate " is transmitted crazily by the netizen

" crash time table of the real estate " is transmitted crazily by the netizen
Morning paper reporter Gao Yan
A few days ago, " crash timetable of real estate " was transmitted crazily by net friends, the tabulator compared China was correlated with Japan the economic data, thus predict the real estate of China will be in 2011 crash. This statement is reasonable, on net opinions vary on earth. The reporter has interviewed professional personage of real estate for this, the expert says, the house property " foam " in China at present Really very serious, such a " timetable " Should cause and pay close attention to.
" timetable " Search for the hot word as the network
From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the central authorities issued the policy of regulation and control of a series of real estate intensively, will the market of house property drop at the sound as the end of 2007, the beginning of 2008? Professional personage gets out " Flex point two times " Say, the scholar claims the real estate market will adjust by force in the second half of this year. This let many to plan, sell person that buy house, stop the foot look around. Just in the the intersection of close attention and atmosphere in room rate, begin, spread a " crash timetable of real estate " on the net. From 2005 such as China to economic situation and the intersection of room rate and trend for 2008, made and compared to Japan for 1991 with 1984 table this, basically move ahead simultaneously in view of data, thus draw the conclusion and think the real estate crash of China will appear next year namely 2011 years.
It is a real estate, it is also crash, these extremely sensitive keywords in compatriot's mind at present, really cause one wave to discuss in the network warmly. The reporter has searched for it, there are more than 30,000 relevant contents in the valley song alone yesterday.
[The network investigates ]
Net friend think time node have disliking hard to gather
About this crash timetable, the reporter initiated the network to investigate in the afternoon of yesterday, there are 300 net friends that voted in two hours. Among them, 67% of the net friends say, " this is a coin words and expressions concept, (China and Japan) The real estate markets of two countries do not have comparativity " ; And 14% of the people think this " The timetable " Very reasonable, 19% of the net friends think it " non- OK " ,The attitude is relatively looked around.
Centring on this table, net friends have published many personal views. Thoughts on the high room rate nowadays, there is net friend that shouts venting one's spleen: "Should break out early. " There are net friends that have not had a personal house yet either, so sigh over with feeling: "Stand for angle of the person who doesn't have room, having broken out, I can afford. " And many people are very entangled with this question: "Consider that buys house, hope to break out urgently; In view of and one's own work that the country is economic, do not hope to break out " Someone points out, this form " can only say U.S.A. has taken the same as one that dealt with Japan that year means, namely appreciate RMB, if once those hot money change into U.S. dollar and withdraw, that China inflation, real estate are within sight in crash! "
Net friend show " I feel a little forced, very obvious it to take when China ordering, going hard to gather when Japan ordering communicate with reporter on line, by Kim, especially appear king,what be come as a hard blow at,in fact finding by one that can well analyse at Japan " .
[Expert's voice ]
Do not no long-line invest the good opportunity at present
Yesterday, reporters interviewed Assistant Researcher Yin ZhongLi of the financial research institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on " crash timetable of the real estate " that the online heat was spread. He say he notice special piece this too " The timetable " . "By the look of the macroscopical backgrounds of real estate and stock market development, China and Japan 20 years before has really had a lot of similar places. Such as 1985, under the pressure in U.S.A., Japanese yen was forced to appreciate, the mobility surplus appeared, and the price bubble of the assets appears. And in similar cases, RMB appreciation of China, the foreign exchange reserve increased greatly 2005, having attracted arbitrage of coming at a large amount of international capital, therefore cause the fund surplus, room rate, stock price all present rise. " He thinks, according to room rate of Beijing, Shanghai,etc., the foam of the real estate is really very serious at present, "the foam is certain to evaporate, but it there is uncertainty when time is, might not or which time point in 2011 year specifically. " "The story in Japan happened this 20 years ago, and this ' crash timetable ', the related departments should pay close attention to. " Yin ZhongLi claims, after rise for several years in succession, the adjustment of the real estate is that one faces a difficult choice to choose: The first kind of choice is to let the foam evaporate at once, must then cause the economic growth rate to glide rapidly, in case of peripheral environment such as export not full restoration, economy will present certain question; The second kind of choice, it is to continue letting the room rate rise, its consequence is certainly calamitous. "There is the third kind perhaps, namely under not breaking the background of the foam of the real estate, rely on the economic fast development to fill and lead up the foam of the room rate. " But he points out, the third kind of choice is difficult to realize, there is no precedent up until now, because so long as you expect the room rate does not fall, the impulse of making the investment would not be weakened for the market, the room rate would not be stopped when rising, upward trend will not keep " steady " automatically after taking shape at the room rate (used after an attribute). "In our policy, anticipated ones that are implying ' steady ' room rate in fact, this is an idealized policy goal. In order to reduce losses, should adopt the first kind of choice resolutely. "
Speak of the investment in property, Yin ZhongLi's personal view is: "Can't treat as the same, it depends on how long it is cycle when is considered. If is one or two months, perhaps the room rate of a lot of cities will also rise, and the amount of the increase is not small; But if used as investment cycle in the past few years, I would think it is not the suitable opportunity of investing in the real estate at present. "
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